Overconfidence: what this star will be

Overconfidence is a star on the Constellate sky: placed by meaning, named, and connected to the stars around it. This is the short form of its post: the line it carries, the area we colour Biases, and what stands beside it today.

The line it carries on the sky: Our ninety percent confidence intervals hold the truth about half the time.

What stands beside it

The stars nearest to it are Dunning-Kruger Effect, Edge, Epistemic Humility and Hindsight Bias, and Epistemic Humility is already open to walk. When Overconfidence opens, the conversation will land it among them, with a line drawn to each idea it touches.

Ask for this star

Every star is lit by demand. Ask for Overconfidence and it moves up the list; when it opens, this post becomes the full essay. The open stars beside it can be walked today, and the first concept of every course is free.