A concept · Reality Deceives · Biases
Confirmation Bias
We hunt for what proves us right and miss the rest.
Two people watch the same replay of the same tackle. One sees a foul, the other sees a dive, and neither is lying. We have all been on one side of that, certain the evidence was plain, and later found that the other side was just as certain, looking at the same thing. If the evidence was the same, what was different?
What Confirmation Bias means
Confirmation bias is the tendency to seek out, notice and remember whatever supports what we already believe, and to let the rest slip past. The definition takes a sentence. Owning it is different. We start to catch the moment we go looking for the article that agrees, the colleague who will back the plan, the number that flatters the forecast. We stop asking "is there evidence for this?", because there always is, and start asking "what would change my mind?" The facts that go against us stop slipping away, because we have learned to write them down first. It does not make us right. It makes us harder to fool, starting with ourselves.
Not to be confused with
Confirmation bias is not the availability heuristic, though they often work together. Availability is about what comes to mind easily. Confirmation bias is about what we go looking for, and what we do with it once it arrives.
Confirmation Bias examples: where it shows up
- At work: the plan we already backed gets the generous reading; the rival plan gets the audit.
- With money: we hold the share that has fallen and read only the people who say it will recover.
- In the news: the feed learns what we agree with and serves it, and we mistake the echo for the world.
Where it sits
Concept 4 of 5 in Reality Deceives, a journey in the course The Examined Mind.
See where Confirmation Bias sits on the sky →
Nearest on the sky
- The Availability Heuristic
- Narrative Fallacy
- Survivorship Bias
- Dunning-Kruger Effect
- Loss Aversion
- Halo Effect
A filled dot marks a star that is already open to walk.
Knowing it isn't owning it.
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