Base-Rate Neglect: what this star will be
Vivid detail makes us forget how rare a thing is.
By Constellate · 9 September 2026 · the short form
Base-Rate Neglect is a star on the Constellate sky: placed by meaning, named, and connected to the stars around it. This is the short form of its post: the line it carries, the area we colour Biases, and what stands beside it today.
The line it carries on the sky: Vivid detail makes us forget how rare a thing is.
What stands beside it
The stars nearest to it are Anchoring, The Availability Heuristic, Bayesian Thinking and Expected Value, and The Availability Heuristic and Bayesian Thinking are already open to walk. When Base-Rate Neglect opens, the conversation will land it among them, with a line drawn to each idea it touches.
Ask for this star
Every star is lit by demand. Ask for Base-Rate Neglect and it moves up the list; when it opens, this post becomes the full essay. The open stars beside it can be walked today, and the first concept of every course is free.