Expected Value: what this star will be

Expected Value is a star on the Constellate sky: placed by meaning, named, and connected to the stars around it. This is the short form of its post: the line it carries, the area we colour Reasoning, and what stands beside it today.

The line it carries on the sky: Multiply each outcome by its odds; a good decision can still lose.

What stands beside it

The stars nearest to it are Base-Rate Neglect, Bayesian Thinking, Ergodicity and Hindsight Bias, and Bayesian Thinking and Loss Aversion are already open to walk. When Expected Value opens, the conversation will land it among them, with a line drawn to each idea it touches.

Ask for this star

Every star is lit by demand. Ask for Expected Value and it moves up the list; when it opens, this post becomes the full essay. The open stars beside it can be walked today, and the first concept of every course is free.